December 2023 Newsletter – Stats from November
Is that light at the end of the tunnel?
What a difference a year makes!
I believed we are positioned really well to FINALLY see a decent/fair/balanced market in 2024!
I won’t sugar coat it. 12 months ago I was scared. Prices were in a downward spiral that seemed to be never ending while interest rates were increasing like Elon Musk strapped one of his rockets to them. Buyers were nervous but trying to lock in rates below 8. Sellers were waiting 3 times as long to even see an offer than the year before.
The graphs below look closer to something you’d see at 6 Flags than a healthy and balanced market. November was a tough month and we’ll see that in the graphs, but with rates falling hard this month and CPI back to relatively swallowable numbers, I really like where we are at.
Let’s start with Median Sales Price. We are right back to where we were in May clocking in at $555,000. We saw our biggest drop since last December, but we are still looking at a 1% gain in value Y-O-Y! I really like that number especially looking at where we were in December, January, and February. I feel like we could easily see a 2-4% gain in value for the year in those months coming up in 2024. As you know, this is where I believe we need to stay for sustainability.
Inventory is going to continue to be an issue with rates dropping until those homeowners locked into a 4% rate from 2020/2021 feel comfortable to make their move. This could happen sooner than I expected if the Fed sticks to what they said in their meeting this month. We ended the month with over 2 months supply of inventory, but with the substantial rate drop this month, I think we’ll see some buyers scoop up a lot of what’s on the market before we see an influx of property in early spring.
All in all, even though there’s a lot of red on the graphs below, I feel really good about where we’re at moving into 2024.
If right now is your time to buy, you are in luck! I think we’ll see some new inventory hit the market in early 2024 and hopefully rates stay in the 6’s for you. If you find ‘the one’, pull the trigger and try to get a seller credit. There’s a lot of buyers on the sidelines right now that will get really active with these rate drops. If you can, try to buy before the craziness of Spring hits to stay away from some competition.
If you’re looking to sell, continue to make sure you know the market and the correct value. Just because rates are dropping doesn’t mean you can overshoot your real price. Buyers will continue to be picky and incorrectly priced homes will continue to sit on the market for longer causing you to get less for your home than you would have if you would have just priced it correctly in the first place. If your home is ready to sell, listing it before more competition hits the market in Spring might be a great way to pull some of these buyers off the fence now. If not, you should have some great luck selling in early spring when the market heats up.