DOG DAYS OF SUMMER

 

I HAVE TO APOLOGIZE, GUYS.  

This update is WAY late this month. I mean, this month is almost over for crying out loud! C’mon Cal!

Let me first go through my excuses for bringing this to you late, as I know you all were on the edge of your seat waiting for it. First off, I GOT A PUPPY! He’s a maniac and has been keeping me very busy picking up his chew toys (usually my favorite shoes, or my glasses), filling his new holes in the lawn, and obviously snapping pictures of the little monster non-stop. My second excuse is admittedly selfish… I wanted a break! With all the craziness in the market since December, it was nice to slow down and hang out for a while. I’m back on the horse now though and ready to rock and roll the last 4 months of 2021!

I ALSO have to apologize for my predictions from last month… I was only 2 for 3. Let’s dig in:

WIN: I said there was going to be more inventory coming on the market. We had more new listings in July than any month in the last YEAR!! 718 new listings in July. FINALLY. Some inventory to help these poor buyers out (kinda… I’ll dig deeper into this below).

WIN: I said both active inventory and absorption rate would be headed for an uptick. We did it! We actually haven’t had this much inventory since October/November last year. This is taking the heat off buyers a little (again, we will dig into this below)! If you’re looking to buy, you’ve FINALLY got some options.

LOSS: Units sold. This one snuck up on me. We actually sold about 2% fewer homes in July than we did in June*. There’s a couple reasons for this in my opinion. With more homes coming on the market, buyers started to dip out of contract more frequently than we’ve seen for the last 6 or 7 months. Buyer’s felt like they didn’t need to “just take what was handed to them”. For the first time in months, if a buyer didn’t like something on an inspection report, they would just walk away instead of “dealing with it”! While I’m disappointed I missed this one, I’m actually super excited for some of my buyers. The sellers can’t bully us so much during negotiations.

All in all, I’m pretty sure I still nailed it.

 Okay, let’s get into why the increase in inventory is just “KINDA” helping buyers right now…

THERE AREN’T MANY BUYERS TO HELP OUT! I’ve got to be honest, I was a little nervous this month at how slow the buyer side of my business was moving. With how fast the market was all 2021, I kept feeling like a slacker because I wasn’t showing 10+ homes a day at the end of July and the beginning of August. Then it hit me. We are ALREADY in the ‘dog days of summer,’ the ‘shoulder season’. It really snuck up on me this year. Kids are going back to school. Families are squeezing that last summer trip in. We are all tired of triple digit temps!!! #GlobalWarmingIsReal!! The fires are also a huge deterrent. Nobody wants to go look at homes when you can’t see the Sierras! I don’t blame them. I don’t want to show homes with an apocalyptic red sun shining down on me.

That all brings us to the best stat of the month! Our median sold price stayed flat! Some people will tell you this is the first month it hasn’t risen in a year. They’re wrong. But it had been 8 months! Pretty good. There is some hope out there for our first timers. Again, I do want to stress, I’m pretty confident this is not a ‘bottom falling out’ scenario. This is a cyclical, seasonal slow-down that caught me off guard because I thought it was still May or something. We are still looking good! 

IF YOU KNOW SOMEONE THAT WAS ON THE FENCE ABOUT BUYING, HAVE THEM REACH OUT TO ME! WITH THE INVENTORY INFLUX BUYERS ACTUALLY HAVE A LITTLE CONTROL IN THE TRANSACTION. FOR REAL.

PREDICTION

 I kind of feel like I’m cheating because this update is so late, but I promise I didn’t look at the stats. Here goes:

We will see a big drop in Units Sold. Like I said, it has been a slow few weeks with buyer activity.

I predict we see an increase in Active Inventory. With less buyer activity and the influx in listings from last month, we should see some homes start to sit on the market.

We will see more price drops on listed homes. Sellers are a little greedy and thinking they are still running the show. Buyer’s aren’t as eager to get in a home that’s not perfect. 

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